Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.900616 1.055069 1.227945 1.435800 1.678999 1.954647 2.290964
2024-10-27 0.626959 0.822047 1.065950 1.393414 1.821989 2.364491 3.104617
2024-11-03 0.502836 0.714299 1.000312 1.415723 2.004593 2.811082 4.002735
2024-11-10 0.444140 0.673327 1.003757 1.515356 2.289228 3.419196 5.200903
2024-11-17 0.388289 0.622609 0.979560 1.563556 2.497859 3.939639 6.344316
2024-11-24 0.336907 0.567908 0.937498 1.572670 2.640949 4.372862 7.410042
2024-12-01 0.292110 0.515292 0.888660 1.559710 2.740882 4.743798 8.420497
2024-12-08 0.256664 0.472197 0.847948 1.551849 2.844142 5.128507 9.503215
2024-12-15 0.230697 0.441433 0.823268 1.566840 2.986850 5.596583 10.796600
2024-12-22 0.199562 0.396210 0.765651 1.511777 2.990425 5.809134 11.638986
2024-12-29 0.192219 0.395319 0.790306 1.616288 3.312178 6.660023 13.835809
2025-01-05 0.169068 0.359487 0.742115 1.569042 3.324698 6.907080 14.849409
2025-01-12 0.148158 0.325812 0.694779 1.519180 3.329773 7.149924 15.913972
2025-01-19 0.130202 0.295912 0.651376 1.471923 3.334803 7.396134 17.030860
2025-01-26 0.120371 0.282414 0.641031 1.495351 3.498080 8.004756 19.048064
2025-02-02 0.117589 0.284526 0.665317 1.600602 3.862346 9.110582 22.381818
2025-02-09 0.111113 0.276952 0.666408 1.651525 4.106137 9.972832 25.264241
2025-02-16 0.102671 0.263335 0.651375 1.661153 4.250910 10.619727 27.712531
2025-02-23 0.093821 0.247370 0.628401 1.647461 4.334881 11.128413 29.883433
2025-03-02 0.086208 0.233476 0.608659 1.639156 4.431388 11.681477 32.254677
2025-03-09 0.080541 0.223908 0.598643 1.654995 4.593969 12.427137 35.259409
2025-03-16 0.072088 0.205543 0.563134 1.596821 4.547293 12.612589 36.740420
2025-03-23 0.071539 0.209161 0.587106 1.707236 4.986698 14.179284 42.398451